$48.74
24h
+17.28%
11 Nov, 02:04
Strong AI cloud infrastructure demand and margin expansion
Bullish+0.02%
AI Summary
The author presents a strongly bullish fundamental thesis on Coreweave, highlighting massive revenue and backlog growth, sold-out capacity through 2027, improving margins, and favorable financing terms, while acknowledging minor risks around interest expenses and future GPU supply dynamics.
Coreweave $CRWV +13%:
Beat across the board: revenue +168%, backlog +138%. Raised its 2026 guide, nudged capex up.
Financing visibility looks much better:
No new unsecured debt planned through '27 at current yields & less than $5B of new parent-level capital expected.
Its next loan is expected to be investment-grade, yield 7%-7.5%, and fund over 90% of the capex it's tied to. Over 75% of committed capex through 2027 is tied to investment-grade and enterprise customers.
About $9B in customer prepayments and deposits is expected over the next 3 months from signed contracts. Over $3B is for already-paid-off GPUs, requiring no new capex or debt service.
DEMAND ISN'T THE ISSUE.
It's "largely sold out through 2027," and all 2028 capacity offered so far has sold. Qualified demand is 10x available capacity through 2027, while 2028 demand is already several times supply.
The older GPU fleet is getting more valuable, not less.
Ampere and Hopper pricing jumped 30%-50% QoQ, above their original contract rates. Over 130K GPUs roll off contract in 2027 and ~170K in 2028. Re-renting them at today's prices could generate nearly $10B in additional annualized revenue with no new capex, none of it in the backlog yet.
New 4-5 year deals now price at $20M-$25M per megawatt a year. Short-term capacity goes for over $40M and can pay back its capex in 6-18 months.
Margins are improving: adjusted operating margin went 1% → 5% → 10% across Q1-Q3. Management expects positive adjusted net income in 1H 2028.
Capex can flatten. If it only builds the committed backlog, 2027 capex stays around 2026's $37B-$39B while revenue and EBITDA grow.
WHAT'S STILL OPEN:
Q3 capex was $14.5B on $3.7B of revenue, and interest expense of $846M was over 4x GAAP operating income of $207M, with Q4 interest guided above $1B.
The parent raise could tap its new ATM for up to 35M shares, but management didn't specify. And there's no quantified downside case if GPU supply catches up and shortage pricing fades.