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11 Nov, 12:49
Oracle data center expansion vs. cash flow lag
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AI Summary
The author provides a financial update on Oracle, highlighting its massive data center expansion plans alongside significant near-term cash flow deficits and rising debt, while noting Goldman Sachs' maintained $206 target price.
Oracle_7GW Compute Delivery_Cash Flow Inflection Point Still in FY29
1. Oracle plans to bring approximately 7GW of data center capacity online before May 2028, with nearly all of it under construction or contracted; the New Mexico project still faces permitting constraints.
2. The $20 billion debt and equity financing has been completed, but Goldman Sachs expects cumulative free cash outflows of approximately $62.8 billion from FY27 to FY28, with cash recovery lagging behind expansion.
3. Goldman Sachs maintains a $206 price target; its FY28 model still projects an increase in debt of $44 billion; the next key focus is validating OCI gross profit and cash flow.