Morgan Stanley Downgrade to Underweight

Morgan Stanley downgrades Coinbase $COIN to Underweight from Equalweight, slashing its price target to $120 from $258. Analyst Michael Cyprys says “confidence in the earnings recovery has deteriorated,” citing weaker trading trends, a softer revenue outlook and uncertainty in crypto markets following the recent Binance hack. The firm sharply lowered its forecasts: • 2027 Revenue: -28% • 2027 Adjusted EBITDA: -47% • 2028 Revenue: -18% • 2028 Adjusted EBITDA: -25% Morgan Stanley now expects just $2.4B in normalized EBITDA by 2028, roughly 14% below 2025 levels, despite Coinbase offering a broader range of products. The firm also cut its target EBITDA valuation multiple to 12x from 20x, warning that the earnings recovery could be significantly weaker than previously expected.