Bernstein downgrades revenue & EPS due to crypto volume headwinds

Bernstein raised its 2026 revenue forecast for HOOD by 3% to $5.447 billion, while cutting its forecast for COIN by 32% to $5.531 billion. Revenue remains nearly flat, with EPS forecasts rising for HOOD to $2.26, whereas COIN shifts from a profit of $5.97 to a loss of $2.60. Key changes: -HOOD is sustaining growth through stocks, options, and prediction markets. Although crypto trading volume rebounded quarter-over-quarter, it remains significantly down year-over-year. Bernstein expects HOOD's prediction market revenue to reach $1.688 billion by 2028, surpassing its crypto business revenue of $1.577 billion. -COIN has gained some trading share, but the overall contraction in industry volume led to a substantial downward revision in revenue forecasts and target price. While new products (prediction markets, Deribit options, etc.) are competitive, the high weight of legacy trading business means that profit recovery requires a stronger crypto market rebound. -In 2027, revenues for both companies are expected to be $7.543 billion and $7.884 billion respectively, but adjusted EBITDA margins will differ significantly at approximately 60% vs. 36%, a gap of about 24.5 percentage points. At this stage, HOOD holds an advantage in business expansion and profit conversion, while COIN's path to profitability recovery relies more heavily on the resurgence of crypto trading and the realization of new products.