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31 May, 07:28
Pre-IPO quantum computing token overvalued vs IonQ
Bearish+98.98%
AI Summary
The author analyzes pre-IPO Quantinuum ($QNT) versus public IonQ ($IONQ), concluding $QNT is overvalued at ~25B FDV while $IONQ at ~26.9B FDV appears undervalued.
Focus on the pre-IPO project Quantinuum $QNT next week, June 3rd:
1. Sector: AI + Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing
2. Problems Solved:
Adopts Ion Trap + QCCD architecture to solve the three most fatal problems of general-purpose quantum computing:
High error rates, limited qubit interconnectivity, and scaling 'wiring explosion'; meanwhile achieving industry-leading coherence time, fidelity, and full connectivity, turning 'fault-tolerant quantum computing' from a concept into an engineering-feasible path;
Turning 'unusable quantum noise' into 'computable quantum signals';
One-sentence summary: The only one achieving high fidelity + full connectivity + QCCD scaling + low error correction overhead simultaneously; closest to a general-purpose fault-tolerant quantum computer;
3. Share Issuance
Total shares issued: 253,937,247 shares
Pre-market price: Price on Hype is 106u, price on Binance is 103u
Pre-market market cap is 25 billion USD
September 2025 private financing valuation 10 billion USD
4. Financial Data
2025 total operating revenue is 30.9 million USD, net loss 192 million USD
2026 Q1 revenue 5.2 million USD, net loss 136.6 million USD
Revenue decreased YoY, losses expanded (R&D / listing expenses increased significantly)
Cumulative R&D investment 2 billion USD+
Comparable US stock company $IonQ:
The world's first pure quantum computing listed company, absolute leader in the Ion Trap (Trapped Ion) technology route;
2021 Listed on NYSE via SPAC model
Core positioning: Full-stack quantum platform (Computing + Network + Sensing + Security), focusing on high-quality qubits (AQ), emphasizing 'quality over quantity'
Industrial Vertical Integration:
1. Early 2026: Acquired SkyWater (US defense-grade semiconductor foundry) for 1.8 billion USD, becoming the world's only full-stack quantum company (chip design → manufacturing → packaging);
2. 2025: Acquired Oxford Ionics (2D Ion Trap), Vector Atomic (Quantum Sensing), Skyloom (Quantum Network)
Major Clients:
Top Enterprises: NVIDIA, AstraZeneca, BMW, JPMorgan Chase, Amgen
Cloud Giants: AWS, Azure, Google Cloud (Exclusive or priority cooperation)
Government / Defense: US Department of Defense, DARPA, NASA
Financial Data:
2025 Full Year: 130 million USD (YoY + 202%)
2026 Q1: 64.7 million USD (YoY + 755%, 4th consecutive quarter high)
Revenue Structure: 60% Commercial Clients (Pharma, Finance, Materials), 35% International Market
Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO): 470 million USD (YoY + 554%)
2025 net loss 512 million USD, difficult to profit in short term
Industry characteristic: Net profit is loss, but revenue is high growth
Regarding Market Cap:
$IonQ: FDV 26.9 billion USD, stock price increase within the year 66%
$QNT based on pre-market price 100u FDV 25 billion USD compared, $QNT is overvalued, $IONQ undervalued, market cap flipped $IONQ on the first day of listing
In terms of $IONQ's stock price increase, the increase is far lower than the storage semiconductor sector
Let's see what market cap the market gives