$59.66
24h
-2.52%
8 Nov, 07:49
Avoid due to weak fundamentals
Bearish+6.01%
AI Summary
The author advocates rotating into beaten-down quality semiconductor stocks like AMD and SPCX that beat earnings expectations, while advising to avoid underperformers like INTC.
The theoretical calculation is as follows.
This algorithm is based on the principle of parallel experiments in science,
where there is only one variable.
The Nasdaq should have corrected by a certain magnitude.
That correction has already been realized.
Short-term stock price movements are also influenced by cash inflows and outflows,
corporate earnings reports, market sentiment, and various other variables.
This algorithm simply models the impact of interest rate hikes alone.
Simplicity is key; since 2017,
this algorithm has proven accurate time and again.
Because interest rates serve as the anchor for global assets,
even high-quality stocks tend to fall first during rate adjustments.
However, the market soon realizes
that these quality stocks were unfairly sold off,
leading to a stronger rebound as valuations are repaired.
Now is the time to buy quality stocks—those that exceeded earnings and guidance expectations
but whose stock prices still fell more than the broader index.
Examples include AMD and SPCX.
These are highly likely to rebound in the short to medium term.
Conversely, stocks like INTC, which have disappointing earnings reports themselves,
should be avoided.