Buy NVDA on dip below $150 despite short-term valuation correction

Fever cooling? Baird slashes NVIDIA price target by half as Wall Street begins pricing in AI slowdown risks for 2027! Today, Baird downgraded $NVDA from Outperform to Neutral, cutting its price target directly from $500 to $200—a 60% reduction, which is rare historically! 🧐 First, who is Baird? Does their voice carry weight? • Founded in 1919, Baird is a veteran American investment bank. While not as famous as Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley, it has always conducted solid research in semiconductors, hard tech, and industrial manufacturing. • Tristan Gerra, the analyst covering NVIDIA at Baird, is a veteran in the semiconductor field. He doesn't follow market trends blindly but focuses more on real supply chain orders and channel inventory data📊. On third-party rankings like TipRanks, he consistently ranks in the top 4%. It's hard to imagine that when an institution that is generally bullish suddenly downgrades a rating, the market wouldn't treat it as ordinary bearishness, but rather as a potential warning: cloud providers' capital expenditures may be nearing their peak! Let's look at his logic. Note, this isn't saying B300s aren't selling now, but looking ahead to 2027: 1️⃣ Supply-side expectation gap. Supply chain constraints could lead to widespread delays in data center deliveries by 2027. 2️⃣ Unclear demand side. The growth rate of cloud giants' AI capital expenditures is expected to slow to 40% or even lower by 2027, and there are signs of pre-emptive cuts of 10%-30% in the channel, meaning order cancellations might come sooner than everyone thinks. 3️⃣ Management uncertainty. Baird explicitly points out that Jensen Huang's tenure and steering rhythm after 2027 could become an implicit risk for valuation. Personally, I feel that when media and investment banks currently bash NVIDIA, it's most likely just to acquire cheap chips. First of all, it's certain that NVIDIA's fundamentals remain very strong, which is undeniable. However, market expectations have been raised too high. Once growth slows down, combined with the variable of management changes, the pain of squeezing valuation bubbles remains a test in the short term. Hope this squeezes out some water. If $NVDA drops below 150, let's get on board! 🤔 Of course, one institution's view doesn't necessarily mean it's correct. Don't blindly follow the crowd, nor blindly bottom-fish. For reference only, DYOR🙏