LDOLDOLido DAO
$0.26
24h
-13.51%
15 Aug, 11:55

LDO in downtrend structure, shorting preferred

Bearish-12.96%

AI Summary

Author admits being wrong on LDO direction, analyzes LDO as being in downtrend structure favoring shorts, while gold shows stronger support with no clear directional preference currently.

Reviewing in the group, I realized that my directional trade on $LDO last Friday was wrong. Damn it, I was looking at too small a timeframe. Subjectively, I held onto expectations of a breakout to the upside without verifying with objective facts, which is why the trade felt so uncomfortable. The first part of $LDO (green): Uptrend, then failed push, weakening uptrend, failed second test, no new highs created, forming a range. Until the second part broke below the structural low of the uptrend, forming a new structural downtrend, correction, then another push down, confirming a complete reversal. The difference between this $LDO and Gold is that Gold found support at lower levels and rebounded strongly, indicating the presence of bullish demand, whereas LDO did not show such behavior. This indicates that bulls are stronger in Gold, while average in LDO. In this situation, LDO is事实上 still in a downtrend structure; if a bearish signal candle appears, shorting would be more ideal. The difference between Gold and LDO is that although Gold formed a downtrend and then a push, it achieved a strong rebound at the HTF support level. This suggests that the LTF downtrend and push is merely an HTF correction. Now, it is more likely entering divergence, meaning it has entered an HTF range. Currently, there is no clear directional preference; we can only maintain our trading approach based on structure. Assuming Gold is in a downtrend, we should see weak pullbacks and a strong break below support, rather than consecutive strong bullish candles pulling back upwards. In this case, aligning with the HTF uptrend structure (which has not been broken), the approach should be to trade in the direction and trend of the LTF. (For example, if the LTF is currently showing a strong uptrend, look for opportunities to align with the uptrend structure within the LTF, and conduct our current analysis and review process within the LTF.)

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