$2.82
24h
-12.86%
12 Aug, 16:58
LIT as catch-up trade with distribution expansion thesis
Bullish+21.67%
AI Summary
The author presents LIT as a catch-up trade to HYPE with strong distribution expansion potential through the Robinhood Wallet partnership, expecting outsized returns from meaningful expansion.
$LIT increasingly looks like the catch-up trade for anyone who missed $HYPE.
On metrics alone, Hyperliquid wins.
LIT 90d volume: -23.8% vs. HYPE: +14.7%
LIT 90d fees: -14.1% vs. HYPE: +3.5%
But on the distribution side, we're seeing a shift.
Since July, Robinhood has used Lighter as the exclusive perps engine inside Robinhood Wallet, with revenue split 50/50.
Robinhood Wallet accounts for just $98M of Lighterโs $33B in 30-day volume.
And while the market already values LIT and HYPE at almost identical fee multiples: 21.1x vs 21.4x.
The LIT thesis rests on expanding distribution.
That's why $LIT is up 162% vs. $HYPE 34% over the past 90 days.
Any meaningful expansion of Lighter or Robinhood will continue to generate outsized returns imo.