$135.19
24h
-0.84%
4 Aug, 21:29
SPCX overvalued at current levels, wait for sub-$90 entry
Bearish+13.90%
AI Summary
The author performs a sum-of-parts valuation on SPCX, concluding it is overvalued at current levels with a fair value of ~$113, and suggests waiting for prices below $90 before considering entry.
Before hearing $SPCX's earnings report, here is an updated valuation:
Rocket Business: 0.2T, revenue is 4x that of RLKB, growth is slower than RKLB. Based on RLKB at 50B, this equals 0.2T.
STARLINK: ARR operating profit of 5.6B. At 200x P/OP, this equals 1.12T, a very, very generous valuation.
AI: 1.4GW of computing power. COREWEAVE has 1GW of computing power and a 50B market cap. The computing power business is valued at 70B, CURSOR at 60B, and the remaining miscellaneous advertising businesses add up to round it off to 0.2T. The market has given a very optimistic 2028 revenue forecast of 80B. For reference, ORACLE has a 400B market cap with next fiscal year revenue of 89B, so I believe a 0.2T valuation is reasonable.
Added together, the total is 1.52T, which includes STARLINK at 200x (the market's current expectations are very optimistic, growing faster than PLTR; if achievable, it is worth 200x). 1.52T corresponds to a price of approximately $113. Therefore, I believe $SPCX is still not cheap; consider whether there is value only after the lock-up period fully ends and the market finds consensus, or when the price is below $90. Valuation is only roughly correct; there is no need to argue with me about right or wrong.