$111.62
24h
-2.44%
7 Nov, 17:49
Bearish on MSTR entry at current levels
Bearish-13.43%
AI Summary
Author refuses to buy BTC or MSTR at current prices, stating neither asset is in the buying zone; would consider re-entering only if BTC drops to 65k-70k and MSTR to 80-90.
Should I buy MSTR at this price?
At this price, I still don't want to buy spot BTC.
So I won't buy MSTR either, which tracks 2x Bitcoin volatility.
When I bought MSTR for over 100,
MSTR had a 30% negative premium relative to BTC.
At that time, BTC was at 65,000,
equivalent to 45,000 BTC, so I bought it.
Later, when MSTR reached 150-160, I sold all my positions
because with BTC above 70,000, the negative premium on MSTR had largely disappeared.
Now, with BTC at 76,000,
the corresponding fair price for MSTR should be 140-150.
Currently, MSTR is priced at 130, representing a 10-15% negative premium,
equivalent to 66,000-70,000 BTC.
The key point is that BTC is not in the buying zone.
Even with the discount, MSTR is not in the buying zone.
Why buy 2x leveraged BTC exposure?
If BTC were at 65,000-70,000 now,
and MSTR at 80-90,
I might consider re-entering and buying MSTR.